Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Yes, the Phillies Should Overpay for an Outfield Bat

The Phillies are being linked to a few outfield bats. Brandon Moss, Michael Saunders, and Jose Bautista have all come up in press reports, though apparently Bautista isn't a "realistic option" according to others. Given that they had the worst offense in baseball last year, this should be a welcome piece of news.

The Phillies should make sure to get the best bat they can get in this club friendly market. Obviously giving Jose Bautista a long-term, high-dollar contract makes zero sense for the club, but an over-pay for a year or two? That makes perfect sense. The Phillies have a very low payroll for a market of their size, and almost no money tied up in long-term contracts. They have space for an outfielder in the line-up, and a need for some level of power in the middle of their order. If they could get a bat that gets on base at an above-average clip, and could hit behind Maikel Franco and get him better pitches to hit, that player would make sense. Handing out a one or two year deal in excess of $20 million really doesn't do any damage to this team, because they're not a struggling small market with a huge payroll. As long as the money doesn't stretch into years they intend to contend (no earlier than 2018, more likely 2019), the Phillies can afford to get someone who helps them win more games now.

Obviously, i'm advocating for signing Bautista, a guy who gets on base at a very high clip, and can put 30 homers into the seats, no problem, even at his advanced age (36). If they could sign him on a one year deal, there's no reason not to, in my eyes. A two year deal would take a little more thought, but also should probably be welcomed. They have the financial ability to do it with little pain, and he would make the team a bit better now. The Phillies don't need to contend for the #1 pick in the MLB draft's in 2018 and 2019, they have a wonderful minor league system now. If they really wanted to turn around and trade Bautista in July to stock up even more, they could do that too. I don't see a downside to signing Bautista, unless they have to go three or four years to do it, in which case I would pass.

I'm also not dismissing the Moss or Saunders ideas either. Moss can play both on a corner outfield spot and at first base if needed, and would essentially replace Howard as the platoon partner at first. Saunders may be the least "brand" name of the three, but he would represent a significant upgrade on the 2016 roster, and probably won't cost terribly much. Either of them would be absolutely fine. What would not be fine is not signing anyone. I'm not expecting the Phillies to win 90 plus games and take the NL East in 2017, but watching another punchless offense take the team to 90 losses isn't necessary or productive. Adding a bat or two more to the roster would allow the Phillies an honest shot to improve from 71 wins to closer to 81 wins, and be a more enjoyable product for the fans. It would also not lull the younger players into a "loser's mentality" of finishing at the bottom of the division every year, and not playing competitive ball with the favorites. Picking at #15 instead of #10 isn't really that bad of a thing for the Phillies, at the stage in the rebuild they are in. While it has become "smart sounding" to advocate for losing as much as possible when you're bad, the Phillies have moved beyond the 2015 low-point of 99 losses. Spend a few extra dollars on a short term deal and try to make the team worth watching again.

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