Who's Actually Winning in the Early Days- Trump or the Resistance?

The first ten days of the Trump Presidency have been a chaotic whirlwind. He's gutted the ACA's enforcement. He's argued with the Press about the size of his Inauguration crowd. He's issued a partial Muslim ban. He's given the order to build his wall on the Mexican border. The Mexican President has cancelled a visit with him. He's called Vladimir Putin. He's fired the Acting Attorney General. He's ignored relevant agencies in issuing executive orders. He's gagged departments from releasing information to the public. He's issued completely meaningless orders to exit the TPP agreement, which was never ratified by the Senate anyway. He's sacked the management level of the State Department. Tonight he'll announce a Supreme Court pick.

All of this is happening, and probably a lot more that I've missed just because no one can possibly keep track of it all. It is very easy for those of us who are opposed to Donald Trump to believe we're winning right now. The Muslim ban was defeated in several Federal court rooms. Republican Senators have announced opposition to some of his crazier pronouncements, like bringing back torture. Articles have been written about the chaos in his White House. The protest crowds have been larger than the Inauguration crowd was. Protesting feels good. It feels like we are winning, and Trump, with his low approval, is losing. Perception may be wrong.

Let's remember something here- our protests aren't doing anything in terms of policy and law, while Trump's chaos is. Once he walks back from stopping green card holders and valid citizens in his Muslim ban, the rest of it might be constitutional. Not a single cabinet pick of his has been denied their seat yet. Some departments are still under gag order, while others have to submit their findings to political appointees who decide what goes public. President Obama's policies on climate change, health care, and many more areas are being walked back, as we speak. Trump may be on weak political ground, he may even be losing control on a lot of matters in his White House, but he's also re-shaping the government in the image of his policies, as we speak.

More important than those policy by policy fights is the big picture. Donald Trump is a test of our very system of government. He wants to fundamentally re-make our governing system to empower the leader, himself. One of the best things I've read lately was a piece by Jake Fuentes, a business leader and apparently deep-thinker on our government. From his piece:

I obviously can’t pretend to know the intentions of the new President, but let’s pretend the power consolidation move is what’s actually happening. In fact, let’s pretend we’re the Trump administration (not necessarily Trump himself, more likely his inner circle) for a second. Here’s our playbook:

1. We launch a series of Executive Orders in the first week. Beforehand, we identify one that our opponents will complain loudly about and will dominate the news cycle. Immigration ban. Perfect.
2. We craft the ban to be about 20% more extreme than we actually want it to be — say, let’s make the explicit decision to block green card holders from defined countries from entering the US, rather than just visa holders. We create some confusion so that we can walk back from that part later, but let’s make sure that it’s enforced to begin with.
3. We watch our opposition pour out into the streets protesting the extremes of our public measure, exactly as we intended. The protests dominate the news, but our base doesn’t watch CNN anyway. The ACLU will file motions to oppose the most extreme parts of our measure, that’s actually going to be useful too. We don’t actually care if we win, that’s why we made it more extreme than it needed to be. But in doing so, the lawsuit process will test the loyalty of those enforcing what we say.
4. While the nation’s attention is on our extreme EO, slip a few more nuanced moves through. For example, reconfigure the National Security Council so that it’s led by our inner circle. Or gut the State Department’sability to resist more extreme moves. That will have massive benefits down the road — the NSC are the folks that authorize secret assassinations against enemies of the state, including American citizens. Almost nobody has time to analyze that move closely, and those that do can’t get coverage.
5. When the lawsuits filed by the ACLU inevitably succeed, stay silent. Don’t tell the DHS to abide by the what the federal judge says, see what they do on their own. If they capitulate to the courts, we know our power with the DHS is limited and we need to staff it with more loyal people. But if they continue enforcing our EO until we tell them not to, we know that we can completely ignore the judicial branch later on and the DHS will have our back.
6. Once the DHS has made their move, walk back from the 20% we didn’t want in the first place. Let the green card holders in, and pretend that’s what we meant all along. The protestors and the ACLU, both clamoring to display their efficacy, jump on the moment to declare a huge victory. The crowds dissipate, they have to go back to work.
7. When the dust settles, we have 100% of the Executive Order we originally wanted, we’ve tested the loyalty of a department we’ll need later on, we’ve proven we can ignore an entire branch of government, and we’ve slipped in some subtle moves that will make the next test even easier.

We’ve just tested the country’s willingness to capitulate to a fascist regime.

Scared yet? Still think "The RESISTANCE" is winning? Still believe that the protests are changing the day?

I have some beach front property for you in Nebraska.