A lot has changed since the team won the World Series in 2008, or won 102 games in 2011. The 2012 team won 81 games, and that was followed up by 73 wins in 2013 and 2014, and 63 wins in 2015. Around that point, the team finally (mercifully) gutted out the core of the squad, sending Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and others packing in trades for prospects, and allowing team legends like Ryan Howard to fade out, freeing up payroll. The result was a 2016 team that improved by eight games to 71 wins, and a minor league system that is universally viewed as top ten, and largely top five, and had the best won-lost record in minor league ball. The Phillies now have virtually no money committed to long-term contracts besides that of All-Star Centerfielder Odubel Herrera's club-friendly extension, and will see a mega-television deal with Comcast SportsNet start to kick significant revenue into the club.
While 71 wins won't get a team to the post-season anytime soon, the good news for the Phillies fan-base is that all the good parts that made the club eight games better in 2016 than 2015 are parts that are likely to hold their performances in 2017. In a year-plus in the majors, Jerad Eickhoff has been pretty consistently durable and solid. In two years starting in centerfield for the Phillies, Odubel Herrera has shown he is a consistent .285 plus hitter, as Cesar Hernandez has shown in a year plus starting at second base. The team improved their depth in the late innings of games with adding Benoit and Neshek to Neris and Gomez. Jeremy Hellickson's last year and a half in the National League seem to suggest he can maintain his current level of performance. Sure, you could question if Tommy Joseph or Freddy Galvis will repeat their 2016 performances, but there are arguments that both could be better, and that new pieces like J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams may help improve this team this year.
There are other reasons to think this team may improve from a 71 team to a closer to .500 team. Chief among them are some of last year's disappointments. Maikel Franco struggled with a lower-than-expected batting average and higher strikeout rate, but the chances he busts out in 2017 are still very strong. Both Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez are capable of much greater things than 2016, and if one or both meet their talent ceilings in 2017, the Phillies pitching staff could become very good. Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr are both pieces of the puzzle that could end up blossoming into something in 2017. Clay Buchholz does drive fans crazy with his inconsistency, but he has at times in his past performed like a top of the rotation arm. Pitchers like Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, and Zach Eflin all had their ups and downs in 2016, but all could break out and pitch a lot more like the ups in 2017. The AA and AAA affiliates were both playoff teams last year, and both sported a lot of the club's top ranked talents, players that could end up helping the big league club this year. While contending for a playoff spot (in my view, winning 85 or more games) may be a stretch, saying this team reaches 81 wins in 2017 is by no means being insane.
The Phillies currently have more starting pitchers (12) that pitched in the majors or AAA last season, than they have spots in their AAA and MLB rotations (10), so they could seek to fill out their bullpen with some of them, or seek to upgrade their line-up a little more using that depth in trades over the next month. Adding an outfield bat with some punch to help hit in the middle of the line-up by free agency is also an option, as someone like Brandon Moss would provide a lefty first-base option and a corner outfield bat that could hit in the middle of the order. This team could still upgrade a bit before Opening Day, and then suddenly the potential to really improve this team really just falls on whether formerly prized prospects like Franco and Nola, who both under performed in 2016, are ready to live up to their potential.
In short, I think the low end for the 2017 Phillies right now is the 2016 Phillies- in other words, they could basically be the same club in 2017. The high end that I currently see for them is something around the 2011 Washington Nationals- the 81 win precursors to the team that has won three of the last five NL Easts. If the Phillies can show that eight-win kind of improvement in 2017, that would likely spur the cash-rich ownership to spend some serious money to put the 2018 club in contention in a National League East that should be prime for the picking. The Nationals window is beginning to close, while the Mets should just be starting to get very expensive. The Marlins don't realize that they are highly unlikely to contend in the near future, it seems, while the Braves seem to want to split the gap between rebuilding and contending, a no-man's land that usually doesn't turn out well. With the Phillies significant financial advantages in this division, the potential to improve quickly is there, provided that the team shows itself worthy of an investment this season.
I'm pretty high on the Phillies situation. I am not delusional, they won't compete with the Cubs, Nats, and Mets of the National League in 2017. They can play competent, competitive baseball though and get back to being a .500 club if things go well this season. In fact they should be able to do that. This is a time of year for optimism, and hoping for a healthy, exciting club in 2017.
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